A recent Rasmussen Reports survey threw a lot of cold water on Nikki Haley’s purported surge in the Republican primaries.
While Governors Haley and DeSantis appear to be tied for second place in the race for the Republican nomination for President, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey found that 60% of Republican voters see Haley as unlikely to win the 2024 nomination.
And swinging Democrats and Independents to her column was unlikely to help turn around the perception that Haley is a loser.
Even though Haley recently scored the high-profile endorsement of New Hampshire’s Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, 53% of Democrats and 66% of voters unaffiliated with either major party view her as unlikely to win the GOP nomination.
The “unlikely to win the nomination” finding might not be bad news for Haley if she had high favorability ratings – but she doesn’t.
Only forty-five percent (45%) of voters have a favorable impression of Haley – up from 41% in June – including 12% who have a Very Favorable opinion of the former ambassador. Thirty-nine percent (39%) view Haley unfavorably, including 17% with a Very Unfavorable impression of her. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure.
Haley is viewed at least somewhat favorably by 52% of Republicans, 44% of Democrats and 41% of unaffiliated voters, leaving her with little growth potential among the GOP voters who will decide the nomination.
Demonstrating the truth of our contention that Haley is the candidate of the Bush GOP’s brie and chardonnay set, breaking down the electorate by income categories, those in the highest bracket – earning more than $200,000 a year – are most likely to think Haley can get the Republican nomination next year.
Even worse, while Haley has often tried to play the “woman card” more men (51%) than women voters (40%) have at least a somewhat favorable impression of Haley, showing her proto-feminist campaign strategy to have largely been a failure.
Former President Donald Trump now has a double-digit lead for 2024, as support for re-electing President Joe Biden has faded in the past month.
A contemporaneous Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey found that, in a two-way contest between Biden and Trump, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose Trump and 38% would vote for Biden. Another 10% say they’d vote for some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
Even worse for Democrats, in a three-way match-up between Biden, Trump and RFK Jr., 40% would vote for Trump, 32% for Biden and 16% for Kennedy. Last month, Kennedy had 12%.
If the 2024 election is a Biden-Trump rematch, 33% of voters say it is likely they would vote for a third-party candidate, including 16% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Democrats are at least somewhat likely to vote third-party if 2024 is a Biden-Trump rematch, as are 25% of Republicans and 35% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
Waning enthusiasm for Biden among Democrats is clearly a factor in shifting voter preferences since the November survey. In a two-way matchup between Biden and Trump, only 69% of Democratic voters would choose Biden, compared to 81% of Republican voters who would choose Trump. In the November survey, Biden got 79% of Democratic voters while Trump was at 73% among GOP voters.
The same pattern is evident in a three-way contest between Biden, Trump and RFK Jr. In such a matchup, Biden would only get 58% support from Democrats, while Kennedy would get 16%. In a three-way race, there are also more Democrats who would vote for Trump (16%) than there are Republicans who would vote for Biden (9%).
Among unaffiliated voters, Trump has a 12-point lead (45% to 33%) over Biden in a two-way matchup. In a three-way contest including RFK Jr., Trump would get 35% of unaffiliated voters, Biden 26% and Kennedy 21%.
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2024 Republican presidential race
