The 2024 NFL Draft is in the books, which is a decent check-in spot for futures betting.
With hundreds of rookies joining the league on new teams, next year’s landscape has been shifted, creating value in the markets.
Let’s take a look at some futures bets that have value as we look ahead to the 2024 NFL season.
Bears to make the playoffs (-104, BetRivers)
A new era begins in Chicago with No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams entering the fold as the new franchise quarterback.
The favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+200), Williams should be expected to have immediate success in this offense.
Shane Waldron, who comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree, has plenty of skill-position talent to work with in his first year as Chicago’s offensive coordinator.
The Bears ranked fifth in pass-block win rate last season, and now they have a loaded wide receiver room after trading for Keenan Allen and drafting Rome Odunze.
Few teams have the secondary talent to compete with the trio of talented receivers that also includes DJ Moore.
Matt Eberflus’s defense was well on its way last year, ranking fifth in EPA/play over the second half of the season, and they only added one player to that group via the draft due to their limited quantity of picks.
However, Kansas’s Austin Booker crushed at the Senior Bowl against some of the draft’s top offensive tackles and is only 21 years old with plenty of upside to offer.
The Bears were close to making the playoffs last year, finishing just two games out after going 2-6 in one-score games. This year, according to the projected win totals currently available on sportsbooks, they have the third-easiest schedule in the NFL, per Sharp Football.
Patrick Mahomes to win MVP (+650, FanDuel)
There’s a case to be made for betting Patrick Mahomes to win MVP every season, but that’s especially true this year.
Last season, the Chiefs relied on Justin Watson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their field-stretching downfield receivers. That wasn’t cutting it, and Kansas City addressed that need this offseason.
First, the Chiefs signed Marquise Brown. With poor quarterback play last season in Arizona, Brown ranked 96th among wide receivers in catchable target rate, per PlayerProfiler. Brown offers elite speed and ball-tracking skills, which the Chiefs will optimize.
Then in the first round of the draft, the Chiefs traded up with the Bills to select Texas’ Xavier Worthy, who ran a 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, the fastest 40 time ever recorded at the scouting event.
Betting on the NFL?
His profile has some flaws, and I would have seen him as a Day 2 prospect on most teams, but Andy Reid and Mahomes have the ability to make him a star with his blazing speed and remarkable acceleration.
Brown and Worthy will constantly pressure defenses deep downfield, opening up more opportunities underneath for Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice.
While Rice has a looming suspension, he showed plenty of promise in his rookie season.
Mahomes surprisingly ranked 38th out of 40 qualified quarterbacks in deep-ball passer rating last season, after ranking top seven in the two prior seasons. With Brown and Worthy in the fold, the Chiefs have rectified their lack of downfield pass-catching colossally. As a result, expect Mahomes to have a massive rebound in his stats.
The +650 odds on MVP might seem short to invest in now, but that number leads to an implied probability of 13.3 percent. If you simulated this season 100 times, more than 13 of them would result in a third MVP trophy for the future Hall of Fame quarterback.
