The New York Mets put up their lowest win total since 2017 in 2023 with only 75, in a year they entered with lofty expectations after splurging in free agency.
Mets owner Steve Cohen took action in October by hiring David Stearns to be his president of baseball operations after waiting nearly three years to hire the former Brewers general manager.
Stearns selected Carlos Mendoza to take over the vacant manager spot and made short-term bets in free agency, signing veterans who still hold some upside.
He inked deals with Luis Severino and Sean Manaea to round out the rotation and J.D. Martinez at DH. He also acquired Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor from Milwaukee.
Management remains keen on offering young players such as Brett Baty the opportunity to work through growing pains, and continue cultivating greater organizational depth, which does looks to be more of a strength heading out of Spring Training.
What will be interesting is to see is how the team approaches the trade deadline, as it is quite reasonable to think the Mets will be hanging around in the wild-card race, but it’s tough to see them being a true contender with the Braves and Phillies lurking atop the division.
Mets’ 2024 odds
| Make Playoffs | Win Total | Win World Series |
|---|---|---|
| +180 | 82.5 | 50/1 |
The determining factor on making or missing the playoffs will hinge mainly on the kind of upside the starting rotation ultimately offers.
Kodai Senga will be unavailable until early May at the earliest, and that will make it especially important that Stearns’ bets on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea are successful.
The lineup has some legitimate upside if it receives monster campaigns from Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor, which isn’t unrealistic.
The bullpen looks as deep as it has in years and, led by Edwin Diaz, should prove to be a strength.
2024 Mets best bets
Mets to make the playoffs (+200, FanDuel)
If you believe in the Mets or are a fan wanting a little action, a bet on them to make the playoffs at plus-money looks like a very reasonable target.
Stearns presided over Milwaukee’s most successful stretch in team history, taking the Brewers to the playoffs in four consecutive seasons from 2018-21, matching the number of postseason appearances in the franchise’s previous 50 years of existence.
The Brewers were a mess when he took over in 2015, inheriting a middling team annually stuck in the bottom half of the NL Central and with one of the worst farm systems in baseball.
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But like he has done with the Mets, he hired a rookie manager (Craig Counsell), plugged holes by signing veterans with some upside remaining and started putting the pieces in place to build what is now one of MLB’s best farm systems.
Stearns has a lot more to work with now, so while it took the Brewers three years into his tenure to make the first of four straight playoff appearances, progress toward that goal should be expedited in New York.
Maybe as early as Year 1.
And I’d rather tap into the idea that if the Mets are going to be good, the top of the lineup is going to have to be pretty dominant.
Pete Alonso to lead MLB in RBI (12/1, FanDuel)
It’s a contract year for Alonso, who is currently set to become a free agent at the conclusion of the 2024 World Series.
It’s always an intriguing angle to target players in a contract season playing toward the high-end of their potential, and there are several other factors working in favor of Alonso.
Last season got ugly for the Mets. It’s no secret that Alonso wasn’t in love with everything which was going on, and a lack of any kind of insulation in the lineup did seem to become a valid source of frustration.
Still, he hit to an xSLG of .527 and an xwOBA of .368, which were actually improvements on his 2023 campaign.
He went cold down the stretch in September and October, but I think it is fair to say that his frustrations regarding the overall situation could have helped lead to some less-determined at-bats than usual.
Odds to lead MLB in RBI
| Player | Team | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez | Astros | +900 |
| Aaron Judge | Yankees | +950 |
| Austin Riley | Braves | +1000 |
| Juan Soto | Yankees | +1200 |
| Pete Alonso | Mets | +1200 |
| Matt Olsen | Braves | +1200 |
Spring training doesn’t count for much, but Alonso has done all he can to alleviate those late-season concerns, as he has slugged .547 and lowered his K-rate to 18.3% in spring games.
Having J.D. Martinez potentially offering legitimate protection to Alonso could offer a huge benefit — especially toward this bet, where we will obviously not want Alonso taking free bases too often.
Brandon Nimmo should make a strong leadoff candidate once again, and is projected by theBAT to put up a .365 OBP. Lindor, who should hit behind Nimmo, is another player I want to buy.
It becomes a little tougher to project consistent lineups after that, but Mendoza has solid options with guys like Jeff McNeil and Francisco Alvarez.
Alonso is not inheriting the kind of situation as players on teams like the Braves or Dodgers, but he should still prove to be one of the very best power hitters in the game, and he could receive far more RBI opportunities than we saw a year ago.
