12:30 Report — Reading the tea leaves in Supreme Court abortion case

It’s Thursday. Happy MLB Opening Day! ⚾️🌭 That means spring is officially here, with first pitch being thrown at 3:05 p.m. (Here’s an ESPN schedule of today’s games.) 🧢 Alright, here’s what’s in today’s edition:

• Reading the tea leaves of the Supreme Court’s abortion pill case, it seems unlikely they will ban it. But two conservative justices mentioned an 1871 law that could be worrisome for abortion-rights advocates.
• King Charles III released an Easter message ahead of what will be his public appearance following his cancer diagnosis.
• The Dollar Tree is changing its pricing, with new items priced at $7 or less.

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.  

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments Tuesday in a case about access to an abortion pill through the mail.

While we don’t know how the justices will rule: Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito repeatedly mentioned the Comstock Act.

What’s the Comstock Act?: It’s a 151-year-old law that banned “obscene” or “lewd” materials from being mailed. Pornography, birth control and abortion pills were included. The law is now considered obsolete by some legal experts.

Comstock Act explainer

So, you see where I’m going with this.

This law didn’t apply when Roe v. Wade was in place, but now that abortion rights aren’t federally protected, it’s given an opening to apply abortion pills to this old law.

💡This is important: Overall, the Supreme Court seemed skeptical of the argument to restrict access to the abortion pill.

^ Then why does this matter?: Justices Thomas or Alito could write an opinion mentioning the Comstock Act. That would then embolden Republicans and anti-abortion groups to enforce the 151-year-old law again.

Read more on how the Comstock Act could be used by anti-abortion activists, via The Hill’s Nathaniel Weixel

“During nearly two hours of oral argument, a majority of justices from across the ideological spectrum expressed skepticism that the antiabortion doctors challenging the Food and Drug Administration’s loosening of regulations for the long-approved medication have suffered the type of direct harm that would give them sufficient legal grounds to bring the lawsuit.” (The Washington Post)

• ‘Supreme Court appears likely to allow abortion drug to remain available’: SCOTUSblog
• ‘Supreme Court to anti-abortion activists: You can’t just challenge every policy you don’t like’: Politico
• ‘Abortion pill case at Supreme Court hinges on “conscience objections” ’: NBC News
• ‘The Supreme Court Got It Wrong: Abortion Is Not Settled Law’: Op-ed in the New York Times
• ‘The Shameless Oral Arguments in the Supreme Court’s Abortion-Pill Case’: The New Yorker
• ‘Retired justice tells CNN to expect ‘more and more and more’ abortion cases at the Supreme Court’: Retired Justice Stephen Breyer’s interview with CNN

Judge Scott McAfee is moving forward with pretrial motions today in former President Trump’s Georgia election interference case.

What’s happening?: Trump’s lawyers argue that the charges should be dropped because Trump’s political speech is protected under the First Amendment.

💻 Watch today’s hearing

“Former President Trump is pulling out all the stops to stave off the start of his first criminal trial, but the New York judge overseeing the case is increasingly appearing to lose his patience in the matter.”

Just this week: “Judge Juan Merchan just this week refused to sideline the hush money case over alleged discovery violations, issued a gag order to the former president and even threatened his lawyers with criminal contempt, which all came in the form of separate court rulings.”

So, are the delays over?: “Trump’s lawyers [are left] with a waning list of options to postpone the April 15 trial date, though they are still pressing ahead with multiple pending motions to do so despite the judge’s irritation.”

How the courtroom dynamic became contentious, via The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld

The Hill’s Ella Lee and Zach Schonfeld wrote a helpful guide of the 88 criminal charges across four cases — and where each case stands.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced that Nicole Shanahan, a 38-year-old lawyer and wealthy entrepreneur, will be his running mate. The news has received a lot of attention, but it’s such a longshot White House bid — what does this actually mean for the 2024 presidential election?

Well, The Hill’s Niall Stanage investigated the polling and reports that Kennedy’s candidacy hurts President Biden more than former President Trump.

Yes, but: Stanage argues that it’s more complicated than that. Republicans view Kennedy in a much more favorable light than Democrats. That could be because his views on vaccine skepticism and the war on Ukraine align with the MAGA worldview.

How Shanahan helps Kennedy: Shanahan is the ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin and has deep pockets. These funds could also help Kennedy’s biggest problem — getting on the ballot in as many states as possible.

Read more on how RFK Jr’s bid could affect Trump and Biden

The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports that President Biden’s reelection campaign strategy is to lure swing state voters on a local level, not through national media coverage. 

“A growing chorus of Democrats say promising to protect Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) from a budding conservative coup could be their best chance to secure military aid for Kyiv that has been stalled on Capitol Hill for months.”

How we got to this point: Conservatives don’t want to send aid to Ukraine unless it is paired with border security. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is threatening to try to have Johnson ousted if he ignores Republicans’ demands. If she does try to oust him, Democrats could save Johnson.

Read more: ‘Democrats see rescuing Speaker Johnson as best bet for Ukraine aid’

🍫🍒 Celebrate: Today is National Black Forest Cake Day!

💵 The $7 tree just doesn’t have the same ring to it: The Dollar Tree is increasing its prices again. Some new items will cost up to $7. (The Hill)

☕️ What’s wrong, honey? You’ve barely touched your Reese’s can of iced coffee this morning: International Delight released cans of Reese’s peanut butter cup iced coffee. (Southern Living)

The House and Senate are out. President Biden is in New York City, and Vice President Harris is in Washington, D.C. (all times Eastern)

• 1:15 p.m.: State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller briefs reporters. 💻 Livestream
• 8:05 p.m.: Biden and first lady Jill Biden participate in a campaign reception.